1 Healthy, 2 Wealthy & 3 Wise - 3rd May
Corona Mortality Tracker, Markets, Jobs, Eccentric Elon Musk, Discipline and much more.....
Hi I am Sankalp Shangari and I intend to share my experiences in Financial Markets, Startup & VC world. More importantly, living better meaningful lives in modern day and age. One newsletter to look forward to.
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I am not going to write much about Corona and its resources, but here is a comprehensive list by Andreessen Horowitz. Also this Mortality Tracker from Economist is very handy. Stay safe, stay blessed.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"Life is NOT too short. It is, in fact, too long. The pervasive fear of mankind is not the fear of death It is the fear of not knowing what to do with his life. It is not the fear of having too little time It is the fear of not knowing how to fill it." - @KapilGuptaMD
TWEET/ OF THE WEEK - I still can’t believe Twitter is free. Thank you Jack 👌🏼
Thinking Ahead - Some Post Corona Market Thoughts 🧠
Nothing in this post is an investment advice guys
Bitcoin decoupled from SPX this week. We saw a 30% rally in BTC, while SPX lost all its gains from previous week. We live in a world where trust in governments and their Fiat is diminishing quickly (see what’s happening in Lebanon). And on the other hand, we have this decentralised asset with its four yearly halving or Quantitative Tightening of BTC. Historically, prices tend to move higher before and after an halving event. So we could see a push towards 10K in next 10 days, and consolidate further around 11/12K. Given the macro backdrop, and past correlation to SPX, there could be limited upside in May/ June. Beyond June, uncertainty around Corona situation could impact the markets either way (Second wave, lockdown openings, global trade impact, demand resurgence etc)
Trade wars are back on table with Trump promising his wrath upon China. It would be very entertaining from markets perspective, how this pans out in an election year. The gullible part in me says that Trump will not sabotage his own election as markets react negatively to these trade wars, while the over confident, over intelligent mind knows “Trump can trump anything that is even close to rationality”. Talking to friends, colleagues, and market participants, a global China backlash is given. However, one cannot just build national & international manufacturing base and switch-off imports overnight. China is not taking it lightly either. My guess is that they know they have messed up. But this time they will not be listening to Trump’s rhetoric twiddling their thumbs. They always think long-term & domestic consumption can be brought to pace some external effects. 1.3 Billion people, remember. Americans, on the other hand have their own issues right now with rising debt, FED, stock turmoil etc, that I promise to cover in another issue soon.
Jobless numbers tell you everything. 30 million in 6 weeks is no joke in the US and we might see similar ratios in other countries. ). Real numbers could be even higher. However, what matters most as we look forward, is how many jobs are we able to bring back with global stimulus. Most people still don’t realise is that 100% consumption is not coming back any soon leading to solvencies (starting with oil companies, retail companies, SME’s etc) and a longer recession (perhaps depression). That means, less restaurants, less movies, less travel etc. At least another 12 months. Reopening does not mean everything is back to norma. I believe Q2 results will be very poor & I don’t see how advertising companies can boast better results going forward. At the same time, we shall see online commerce, gaming, health. tech infra & fintech take center stage.
This tweet with about 8300 pollsters tells me that we are all equally divided on the depth of recovery. But atleast 50% won’t travel for 6 months and atleast 25% for 1 year.
1 on Health 🏃🏻♀️🏃🏼♂️
Meditation: Twitter is going crazy with several fans swearing to Naval’s meditation tweet-storm. It’s as simple - “let it all go”. Just surrender, whatever comes, no thoughts, nothing. Just “Be”. Worth a try IMO.
Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio: Meditation is ‘the single most important reason' for my success
2 on Wealth 🥂🍻
Legendary Investor Charlie Munger at the daily journal annual meeting - some guys just Ooze wisdom, don’t they?
Must read by Wall Street on Parade - These guys are awesome. This one in particular. Its the NY FED that is a private institution OWNED by MNC Banks that prints money from thin air, not the Washington FED. I’ve made some of my won mental notes in this flow diagram for ease of understanding below. I will try and write a bigger piece on this whole mockery very soon.
3 on Wisdom 🧠🗣
Ask these 17 questions to yourself by Tim Ferris. Could help anyone.
Jeremy McGrew 🎒⚔️ @jeremymcgrew_The messed up part is 95% of people don't even know what you're *actually* saying. https://t.co/wwqaOX4Gw2
Getting Rid of Bad Habits/Downside - Via negativa is a Latin phrase used in Christian theology to explain a way of describing God by focusing on what he is not, rather than what he is; understanding Deity’s positive qualities is a task deemed impossible for the finite minds of humans.
Via negativa can also be used to describe a similarly “negative” way of improving one’s life; instead of concentrating on what you do, the focus turns to what you don’t do. This path has two main thrusts: stripping bad habits and situations out of your life, and avoiding bad habits/situations in the first place.
And if you are a fan of Charlie Munger and his financial wisdom, here is are the best of his quotes under replies to this thread by Shane Parrish
Video I am watching - Napoleon Hill - 10 Rules of Self Discipline
Listen to this once a week. Discipline, aka consistency is much more important than anything else.
Podcast that I enjoyed
How Chamath thinks we can solve the structural issues in health and economics, why being a patient investor will pay off, where he is looking for opportunity right now, and how the world is going to change after the pandemic is over.
Best of Bitcoin
The original BTC S2F model is a formula based on monthly S2F and price data. Since the data points are indexed in time order, it is a time series model. This model has activated quantitative analysts around the world. Many have verified the non-spurious relationship between S2F and BTC price
Central Bank Digital Currency - or CBDC by Bitmex research analysing banning physical cash, and, ii) Allowing retail customers to have deposits directly with the central bank. And their different economic consequences
Best Articles this week
Nassim Taleb's talk at BlockCon where he explored the concept of having 'skin in the game' and how asymmetric risk sharing pervades our everyday lives.
The world after Corona by Yuval Noah Hariri - one of the greatest authors of our time
World 2.0 — There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen
Startup & VC Corner
The Founder's Field Guide for Navigating This Crisis — Advice from Recession-Era Leaders, Investors and CEOs Currently at the Helm. This is an amazing resource full of wealth in these turbulent times
Discover over 500 active Venture Capitals, Startup Accelerators, Angel investors, Impact Investments, and Crowdfunding Platforms in the Asia Pacific region.
The Burn Multiple by David Sacks. Startups whose burn is too high relative to their growth will find it hard to fundraise. Founders should be prepared for this shift in emphasis. This post provides a framework for how to think about capital efficiency.
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Disclaimer: None of the content in this newsletter is meant to be financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before taking any action related to content within this article. This post is for reference only. It will not help you to “lambo” or “moon” or any other euphemism for unhinged speculation. It should help you to supplement your own analysis of the markets. Enjoy.